Ulrich, Christina L. 1998. PREDICTIVE MODELING IN URBAN, HISTORICAL ARCHAEOLOGY IN MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA, USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS. Abstract: As urban expansion and development occur an at ever increasing pace, archaeologists are forced to develop methods of research that allow them to locate archaeological sites efficiently. One such method that is gaining increasing attention is predictive modeling using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This technology allows one to locate sites not only based on environmental factors but also by using historic maps that need scale, projection, and orientation rectification. Likewise, GIS allow small sites to be included in a larger database of sites to be fit into the overall history of the city or region. The basic locational model that predicts site location can be extended to answer why and how the sites came to be there. The specific research under examination in this thesis deals with urban, industrial, and historic archaeology. The project area is the future home of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Several maps from different time periods were located for this property. Data layers created from the maps were rectified in order to determine which building foundations still existed. This was done through a computerized process of overlaying or superimposing the map layers. The individual layers were then compared with layers created from diagrams of the project areas excavated to determine how well the model worked. While further refinement is needed to locate the structures more accurately, the model did a fairly good job of locating historic foundations. Methods are needed for more accurately inputting the map layers as well as identifying reference points to tie the maps together.
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